FOCRAII 2008

Summary of FOCRAII 2008

    2008-08-28

Monitoring-Assessment-Prediction for Regional Association (RAII)

FOCRAII

9-11 April 2008

Beijing, China

 

 

 

Table of Contents

 

1.    Executive Summary

2.    General Features of the Forum

3.    Outcome of the Forum

4.    Feedbacks from the Participants

      

Appendices

 

I: Climate Outlook for Asia (RA II), June-July-August (JJA) 2008

II: Final Agenda

III: List of Participants

IV: List of Acronyms

 

 

1. Executive Summary

 

Having met in Beijing, China, from 9 to 11 April 2007, the Forum participants agreed on the following findings and recommendations:

 

l        In addition to the contributions from established centers such as the APCC, Hadley Center/UK, IRI, CPC/NOAA, JMA, and KMA, experiences from other WMO Association Regions, such as Africa with participation of Burundi (located in ICPAC region), Indonesia, Malaysia and the Philippines were shared. This is greatly appreciated by the participants.

l        The Forum reaffirmed the importance of Climate Monitoring, Assessment, Prediction and Applications (CliMAP) for preventing and managing the negative impacts of climate variations and changes, in particular, extreme climate events (e.g. droughts, floods, typhoons, etc.), on the socio-economic, environmental and developmental well-being of members of the RA II region and for contributing to achieving the members’ obligations under international, regional and national agreements, conventions and national development plans.

l        The Forum recognized the significant progress made in CliMAP programs and activities within RA II with the development of RA II Regional Climate Center, particularly BCC and TCC.

l        The Forum reaffirmed the importance of the continuation and long-term sustainability of CliMAP programs and activities, including increased research and model developments, multi-model ensemble techniques and downscaling methods involving development of statistical downscaling and regional climate models (RCMs), education, training, capacity building, and outreach and urged the advanced climate centres within the region such as BCC and TCC to continue to host training and capacity building programs for the region on a regular basis.

l        The Forum discussed the outputs from various climate prediction models (APCC, BCC/CMA, CPC/NOAA, IRI, Hadley Center/UK, JMA, and KMA) and used these outputs, especially those from BCC, to produce a ‘multi-centre’ seasonal climate outlook (attached as Appendix I to this report) for the RA II region for summer (June-July-August) of 2008. The prediction was also partly based on the predictions by the participants from Bahrain, Bangladesh, Burundi, Cambodia, Chinese Hong Kong, Chinese Macao, China, India, Indonesia, Japan, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Laos, Malaysia, Maldives, Mongolia, Myanmar, Pakistan, the Philippines, Republic of Korea and Tajikistan, for their own countries/regions with various statistical methods. Indeed, several suggestions have been discussed to improve the prediction by taking into account of model skills, regional patterns, etc. The prediction in the appendix should therefore be considered the results from an exercise rather than anything directly targeted to specific users.

l        It is agreed that communications between the end-users of climate products and services and the producers are important to improve the products and the services. In the meantime, the end-users can obtain a better understanding and make better use of the products. 

l        It is agreed that improvement in data quality is needed for better climate monitoring and assessment.

l        The Forum encouraged all WMO RA II regional climate/monitoring centers to participate and share experiences in future forums.  

 

 

 

2. General Features of the Forum

 

The FOCRAII held in Beijing, China, during 9-11 April 2008, sponsored by CMA, cosponsored by WMO and WMO East Asian Monsoon Activity Center, and hosted by the Beijing Climate Center of CMA, was a response to addressing the needs of the RA II region for CliMAP (see Appendices II & III for Final Agenda and List of Participants).  

 

The main objectives of the Forum are:

 

l        To review the progress made in the CliMAP programs and the activities both within RA II and internationally with a specific focus on the challenges and opportunities in seasonal to inter-annual climate prediction methodologies and systems unique to the RA II region.

l        To provide a platform for the members of RA II to share and exchange experience and knowledge on CliMAP.

l        To build collaborations and partnerships among the members of RA II in the CliMAP programs as well as other international partners and activities.

 

There were totally 100 participants from 24 countries/territories or regional groupings (Bahrain, Bangladesh, Burundi, Cambodia, China, Chinese Hong Kong, Chinese Macao, India, Indonesia, Japan, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Laos, Malaysia, Maldives, Mongolia, Myanmar, Pakistan, Philippines, Republic of Korea, Tajikistan, United Kingdom and United States), and representatives of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). Deputy Administrator of CMA, Dr. Xiaofeng Xu, and Mr. Joel Martellet from WMO joined part of the Forum.

 

The Forum was organized in three sessions including invited lectures and oral presentations (see Appendix II for details).

 

 

3. Outcomes of the Forum

 

A “consensus” prediction of the summer climate in the RA II region and a CD-ROM including all presentations were produced.

 

 

4. Feedbacks from the Participants

 

In the summary session, all the participants were given chances to comment on the Forum. Overall, the participants were very happy with the preparations and conduct of the Forum. Also, majority of the participants was happy with the communications with the organizers on the objectives, content and necessary preparatory actions expected by the participants. Logistics arrangements were generally very satisfactory.

All participants felt that it is necessary to continue the efforts in the future to seek a systematic way to integrate various predictions.


APPENDIX I: 2008 Climate Outlooks for RA II Region

 

Prediction of precipitation and temperature for JJA 2008

The predictions of precipitation and temperature trend in summer 2008 are shown in Fig. A and Fig. B, respectively. Note that several different predictions, most being probability forecasts, were presented and discussed at the meeting. For some areas, the forecasts were too different to obtain a consensus forecast. In addition, some areas have very limited predictability. Thus, it should be kept in mind that the predictions have a large uncertainty in some particular areas, and accordingly, caution should be taken in using the information.

Fig. A.   Predictions of precipitation trend for summer 2008

 

Fig. B.   Predictions of temperature trend for summer 2008


APPENDIX II: Agenda

FOCRAII 2008 Final Programme

April 9 (Wednesday), 2008

Registration08:00-09:00

LocationLobby of Beijing Climate Center

Opening Ceremony (09:00-10:00) (Conference Hall at the 1st Floor of BCC)

Chair:                 LI Weijing

09:00-09:10         Welcome address by head of CMA

09:10-09:20        Address by WMO representative (Ms. Leslie MALONE)

09:20-09:30         Address by Executive Director-General of BCC (Dr. XIAO Ziniu)

09:30-10:00         Group Photo and Tea Break

Invited Lectures (10:00-12:00) (Conference Hall at the 1st Floor of BCC)

Chair:          Chih-Pei CHANG

10:00-10:40         Methods and Tools for Climate Adaptation: WMO Initiatives

Leslie MALONE, WMO

10:40-11:20         Terrain Effects on Southeast Asian Monsoon

Chih-Pei CHANG, USA

11:20-12:00        Diagnosis of the Atmospheric Circulation in Winter 2007/08 Focusing on Unusually Strong Siberian High and Cold Surges over Asia

Kumi HAYASHI, TCC/JMA, Japan

Lunch (12:00-13:30) (CMA’s Guesthouse Restaurant)

Session 1Prediction on East Asian Summer Monsoon and Summer Climate in 2008 (13:30-18:00) (Conference Hall at the 1st Floor of BCC)

Invited Lectures (13:30-14:10)

Chair:      Liqiang SUN

13:30-14:10       Tropospheric Biennial Oscillation (TBO) and Summer Precipitation in China

DING Yihui, BCC/CMA

14:10-14:50        Regional Climate Modeling in Seasonal Climate Prediction: Advances and Future Directions

Liqiang SUN, IRI, USA

Oral Presentations (14:50-15:50)

Topic I: Overview of Recent Climate and Climate Change

14:50-15:10       Climate and Flood in Cambodia

BIN Chann Mony, DOM, Cambodia

15:10-15:30         Some Indications of Climate Change in Bangladesh

Md. Shadekul ALAM, Bangladesh Meteorological Department

15:30-15:50         Overview of Recent Climate over Korea

LEE, Hyun-Soo, CPD/KMA

  

15:50-16:10    Tea Break

 

Oral Presentations (16:10-17:530)

Chair:      Kumi HAYASHI

Topic I: Overview of Recent Climate and Climate Change (cont.)

16:10-16:30        An Analysis of the Snow Storms Affecting China in January 2008

Song YANG, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center

16:30-16:50        Characters of Meteorological Disasters Caused by the Extreme Synoptic Process in early 2008 in China

      WANG Zunya, BCC/CMA

16:50-17:10        Wind Condition Changes in Kazakhstan

Bayan SAZANOVA, Kazhydromet

17:10-17:30         Climate in Bahrain

Nader Ahmed Abdulla Mahmood, CAA, Bahrain

17:30-17:50        Assessment of Recent Dry Spell and Impacts of La Niña in the Philippines

              Rusy G. ABASTILLAS, PAGASA-DOST

Reception by BCC (18:00-20:00) (Hubei Hotel, 36 Zhongguancun Nandajie)

 

April 10 (Thursday), 2008

Invited Lectures (08:30-10:30) (Conference Hall at the 1st floor of BCC)

Chair:             Song YANG

08:30-09:10         Improving Observational Data Towards Better Climate Monitoring,

Assessment and Prediction - A Regional Perspective

G. KRISHNAKUMAR, IMD, India

09:10-09:50        Monitoring and Prediction of the Asian-Australian and Indo-Pacific Climate

Song YANG, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center

09:50-10:30        The APCC Prediction Efforts: Operations and Research

Karumuri ASHOK, APCC, Korea

10:30-10:50       Tea Break

 

Session 1 (cont.) Prediction on East Asian Summer Monsoon and Summer Climate in 2008 (Conference Hall at the 1st Floor of BCC)

Oral Presentations (10:50-12:30)

Session 1 Topic II: Climate Prediction System and Modeling

Chair:                 Karumuri ASHOK

10:50-11:10        Application of Long-term Climatic Models on the Territory of Tajikistan

Shakhlo RADZHABOVA, MFC, Tajikistan

11:10-11:30         Multiyear Hindcast Simulations of Summer Monsoon over Pakistan by Using a Nested Regional Climate Model (BCC_RegCM1.0)

Sajjad SAEED, PMD

11:30-11:50         Application Time-Frecuency Wavelet Analysis for the Validation and Verification of the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis Model Output

Erwin Eka Syahputra MAKMUR, IMGA, Indonesia

11:50-12:10        High Resolution Climate Modeling in Indonesia: Lessons Learned from Applications of Rainfall Prediction in Regency/District Scale

Fierra SETYAWAN, IMGA, Indonesia

 

Lunch (12:30-13:50) (CMA’s Guesthouse Restaurant)

 

Oral Presentations (13:50-18:00) (Conference Hall at the 1st Floor of BCC)

Session 1 Topic III: Seasonal Climate Prediction of the summer 2008 over East Asia Area

Chair:                 SUN Zhaobo

13:50-14:10  Seasonal Outlook of the 2008 Summer

LEE, Jeong-Seog, CPD/KMA

14:10-14:30  Seasonal Outlook of 2008 Summer by the METRI/KMA CPS

KANG, Hyun-Suk, METRI/KMA

14:30-14:50        JMA's Seasonal Forecast for 2008 Summer

Ryuji YAMADA, TCC/JMA, Japan